In addition, different types of life cycle curves can be considered depending on the level of aggregation at which the product is considered (Figure 2).įigure 2: Variants of the product life cycle curves There is also no evidence that the turning points of the various phases of the life cycle are more or less predictable. Research Questionsĭespite the popularity of the product life cycle theory, there is no evidence to support that most products go through a typical four-phase cycle and have standard life cycle curves ( Emelyanov et al., 2002). But despite the decline in demand, the company still has loyal conservative consumers. Consumers are beginning to abandon the product in favour of more modern, new and technological innovations in the market. “The sales decline stage” is characterized by a significant decrease in sales and profits. The product becomes sufficiently known in the market and can exist with the minimal support. In “the product maturity stage”, the product reaches its maturity, sales and profit levels stabilize, and growth slows down. At the growth stage, the first competitors appear who borrow successful production technology and product quality. The growth phase is characterized by high sales and increased profits, which can now be reinvested in programmes to develop the new product ( Karpov, 2005 Kelton & Lou, 2004). At that stage, the future success of the new product is laid. “The growth stage” is the most important stage in the product life cycle. The length of the period depends on the intensity of the company’s efforts to distribute the product on the market ( Lychkina, 2005). “The market introduction stage” is characterized by low sales, low growth, and relatively high investment to support the product. Figure 1 shows the main stages of the product life cycle: market introduction stage, growth stage, product maturity stage, sales decline stage. The classic product life cycle curve looks like a graph of sales and profits over time. With the help of models, one can play various behaviour scenarios of consumers, suppliers, competitors, which largely determines an enterprise development in the future. The enterprise activity in the model is reproduced, for instance, by describing the cash flow movement as events occurring in different periods of time, operations within the enterprise and the input or external data affecting its work ( Filippov et al., 2020). Simulation models provide an opportunity to test various ideas, hypotheses and assumptions regarding an enterprise development or a business strategy implementation, and analyse their fulfilment consequences. Keywords: AnyLogic, expert systems, life cycle, modelling, simulation modelling Introduction The concept of the product life cycle describes the stages of any product or service development, from the moment it first appears on the market to its sale termination and production end. In this regard, the concept of the product life cycle is introduced. Each product exists on the market for a certain time and then sooner or later it is replaced by another, more perfect one. Modern world is impossible to exist without modelling various situations (economic, political, social or others), which often plays an important role in risk assessing and forecasting a particular business or enterprise development. The article describes the course of development, consumer specific states and the factors affecting them, sets the interaction mechanism, and at the end gives the system results. The AnyLogic environment is chosen to develop a system for simulating the consumer market and charting the product life cycle. The article considers the relevance of simulation modelling of various situations in the modern world, describes modelling methods and analyses the subject area, which is the product life cycle and its curves.
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